Taming the Wildcats: Previewing #9 Villanova
The Hoyas face a tough test to kick off Big East play on Friday night.
After taking on #11 West Virginia last weekend, and giving them all they could handle for 30 minutes before running out of gas, the 2-2 Georgetown Hoyas will get another chance to prove they should be taken seriously in the Big East this year, when they host the #9 Villanova Wildcats, who are 4-1 to start the season, with wins over Boston College, Arizona State, Hartford, and Texas.
With that, let’s start off your morning with a preview of what’s to come later tonight, when the Hoyas welcome in the Wildcats to McDonough Arena.
Villanova Wildcats
Head Coach: Jay Wright (20th season at Villanova; 476-183 school record)
Conference: Big East
Current Record: 4-1
Last Season’s Record: 24-7, 13-5 (1st in Big East)
Projected Starting Lineup: PG Collin Gillespie, SG Justin Moore, SF Caleb Daniels, PF Jermaine Samuels, C Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
Wildcats by the Numbers
KenPom Rank: #3
KenPom Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 114.7 (4th in the country)
KenPom Adjusted Defensive Effiency: 89.4 (23rd)
KenPom Adjusted Tempo: 345th
FG%: 47.3 (77th)
3FG%: 35.9 (101st)
FT%: 72.2 (103rd)
Turnovers per game: 8.8 (300th)
Total Rebounds per Game: 36.2 (178th)
Three-Point Attempts per Game: 25.6 (71st)
Players to Watch
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Center
After exploring the NBA after his freshman year, in which he was named Big East Freshman of the Year, Robinson-Earl decided to return for his sophomore season at Villanova, and is vying with Nate Watson for title of best center in the Big East.
(Sorry, Hoya fans, Qudus is close, but not quite there yet!)
Robinson-Earl leads the Wildcats in scoring, averaging 16.2 points per game, and also averages 9.0 rebounds per game. Robinson-Earl is skilled offensively, but has struggled mightily from three-point range so far this season, shooting 16.7% on 2.4 attempts per game, after shooting 32.8% from behind the three-point line as a freshman.
Qudus Wahab will have his work cut out for him defending the 6-foot-9 Robinson-Earl, and Patrick Ewing may be forced to use Chudier Bile at the center position again if Wahab gets into foul trouble again, which is kind of a likely scenario at this point in time, with how often Wahab fouls.
JRE is no defensive slouch either, with the best defensive rating on the team currently, at 99.9. The Wildcats lack depth at the center position behind their sophomore star, though, so it would make sense for the Hoyas to get the ball to Wahab early on offense to draw some contact from the undersized Robinson-Earl.
Collin Gillespie, Point Guard
Collin Gillespie returns for his fourth (are we sure it’s not fourteenth?) season at Villanova, and is the straw that stirs the drink for the Wildcats as their starting point guard and floor general. Averaging 14.6 points and 4.2 assists per game, Gillespie is a threat to score from all three levels. This season, he is shooting 37% from three, and also has an extremely low turnover rate, of 6.8%.
While Gillespie lacks the athleticism and burst to make him an NBA prospect, he’s an incredibly consistent and poised player, and Georgetown’s backcourt will have its hands full with him, once again, on Friday night.
Caleb Daniels, Wing
After sitting out last season due to NCAA transfer rules, Caleb Daniels has emerged as the top long-distance shooter for Villanova this season, and has seemingly supplanted Cole Swider as the team’s primary three-point marksman.
Daniels, who transferred from Tulane, is averaging 11.6 points per game and shooting 42.9% from three-point territory. Georgetown will be able to slouch off Robinson-Earl and Jermaine Samuels (22.2% from three) on the perimeter in this game, but must locate Daniels at all times when the Wildcats are on offense.
Justin Moore, Wing
After a strong freshman campaign, the DeMatha product has taken another jump as a sophomore, averaging 14.2 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. In a team full of players that love to shoot the three, Moore is the one who shoots the most three-pointers, averaging 6 three-point attempts per game. Another player to limit from behind the arc.
Keys to the Game
Defend the Three
Villanova has an excellent, analytically-pleasing shot profile. They emphasize shooting the three, and take only 8 more two-point attempts per game on average, than three-pointers. The Wildcats average 25.6 three-pointers per game, which is 71st in the nation, and only take 34.4 two-pointers per game, which, conversely, is 230th in the nation.
Georgetown will have the size advantage on the inside in this game, if Wahab can stay out of foul trouble, so the Wildcats will likely hunt for looks on the perimeter, where players like Daniels, Moore, and Swider can knock them down at a high clip. While the Hoyas have shown some signs of life on defense this season so far, they will need to play incredibly disciplined perimeter defense, and make sure they get out to shooters quickly when Robinson-Earl (11.7% assist rate) passes out of the post.
Limit Turnovers
I mean…no duh. But like, seriously this time, guys. STOP. TURNING. THE DAMN. BALL. OVER. This game will quickly turn into a blowout if the Hoyas turn the ball over 26 times like they did against Coppin State.
The Wildcats are one of the slowest teams in the country in terms of tempo, where they currently rank 345th. That means possessions will likely be at a premium in this game, which makes every turnover that much more of a killer for Georgetown.
Am I confident that Georgetown can accomplish this key to the game? Well, not really, no!
Attack the Interior
Like they have had in other games so far this season, the Hoyas will have a size advantage in this game. Whether they can use that to their advantage in winning this game will be a different story. Theoretically, Qudus Wahab should have success posting up the smaller Robinson-Earl down the low, and ideally would draw an early foul or two on JRE to get him off the floor.
Villanova is allowing its opponents to shoot 50.9% on two-point field goals this season, which is 209th in the country. They are also 222nd in the country with 2.4 blocks per game. Georgetown cannot settle for outside shots against a team that is susceptible in the paint.
The Hoyas are currently 6th in the country in rebounds per game, at 48 per game. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are 178th. The Hoyas will need all the extra possessions they can get against this team, so attacking the interior also means attacking the boards too.
Get to Villanova’s Bench
Look, I’m not saying their bench is *bad*, but Villanova doesn’t have the best depth this season, and if Georgetown can play aggressively and draw fouls, they can make this a game. Villanova’s rotation is very small, with Jay Wright usually playing seven guys most nights.
Wings Cole Swider (19.8 minutes per game) and Brandon Slater (12.8 MPG) are the two key reserves off the bench for the Wildcats. Besides that, Wright relies heavily on his starters to produce on the floor, and avoid foul trouble. Gillespie averages 36 minutes per game, and Moore and JRE both average 35 minutes per game.
The Wildcats’ depth at the guard spot took a hit when sophomore Bryan Antoine suffered a setback in his return from shoulder surgery, and the Wildcats don’t have much support behind Collin Gillespie, if he gets into foul trouble. Sophomore guard Chris Arcidiacono, the younger brother of former Villanova guard Ryan Arcidiacono, is the first true guard off the bench for Villanova.
Will Patrick Ewing Be Forced to Go Small?
This may be another tough spot for Timothy Ighoefe, at least on defense, so it will be interesting to see who Ewing will play at center when Qudus Wahab is off the floor. The Hoyas had success against Coppin State on Tuesday when Chudier Bile slid over and played the center position, instead of Ighoefe, and Bile’s athleticism and mobility would match up well with Robinson-Earl and Jermaine Samuels.
However, going small would negate the Hoyas’ size advantage and could hurt them too. But it’s hard to see Ighoefe being able to guard Villanova’s bigs out on the perimeter in this game.
In an ideal world, Wahab plays 30+ minutes and you survive 7-8 minutes of Ighoefe on the floor, and use Bile at the 4, but it will be interesting to see who blinks first between the two teams in terms of who goes big and who goes small, and when.
Prediction: Villanova 78 - Georgetown 70