Storm Warning: Hoyas Host St. John's
The Johnnies have started 0-2 in Big East play three out of the last four years...can they avoid a similar start this year?
Thankfully, Georgetown fans don’t have to dwell too long on that gut punch of a loss to Villanova on Friday night, as they will host St. John’s on Sunday night at 7:30 PM in McDonough Arena. The 5-2 Johnnies lost to Seton Hall on Friday afternoon, 77-68, and will be looking to avoid an 0-2 start to their Big East schedule, as will the Hoyas.
St. John’s Red Storm
Head Coach: Mike Anderson (22-17 at St. John’s, 391-217 career)
Conference: Big East
Current Record: 5-2
Last Season’s Record: 17-15 (5-13, 8th in Big East)
Projected Starting Lineup: PG Posh Alexander, SG Greg Williams, SF Vince Cole, PF Julian Champagnie, C Josh Roberts
Johnnies by the Numbers
KenPom Rank: #86
KenPom AdjO: 105.1 (80th in country)
KenPom AdjD: 95.9 (96th)
KenPom Adjusted Tempo: 75.6 (15th)
FG%: 46.7 (97th)
3FG%: 29.8 (237th)
FT%: 74.3 (75th)
Steals: 11.7 per game (10th)
Opponent Turnovers: 19.7 per game
Players to Watch
Julian Champagnie, Forward
Julian Champagnie is the best all-around player on this team, and is the guy to stop for Georgetown on Sunday night. A member of last year’s Big East All-Freshman Team, the 6’7” sophomore from Brooklyn is averaging 22.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game to start this season off.
Champagnie brings a lot to the table for the Johnnies on both ends of the floor, where he is second in defensive rating and third in offensive rating for his team.
While he isn’t a strong three-point shooter, Champagnie is shooting 49.4% from the field, and is elite from the free throw line, where he is a 90.5% free throw shooter.
Posh Alexander, Point Guard
The prized jewel of this year’s freshman class for St. John’s, Alexander is off to a solid start in his freshman year, averaging 8.9 points, 4 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game.
Alexander has started every game so far for the Red Storm, but still has room for improvement. Despite being third on the team in assist rate, at 21.4%, Alexander also leads the team in turnover rate, at 29.3%.
Alexander is a physical, downhill player who plays with an edge. Jalen Harris will be looking to make up for his poor performance against Villanova in this game, and will have to work hard to keep Alexander in front of him. Helping Harris will be Alexander’s lack of outside shooting, where he is shooting just 28.6% from downtown. That should help Harris play off him a little more.
Greg Williams, Guard
Williams, now a junior at St. John’s, has emerged as the offensive sidekick to Champagnie, and is the best overall shooter on the team, with a true shooting percentage of 60.7%.
After averaging 5.7 points per game last year, Williams has seen that average spike to 12 points per game, and is second on the team in offensive rating, as well as second in defensive rating.
Defensively, Williams is a perfect fit for a team coached by Mike Anderson. He leads the team with a 5.5% steal percentage.
Williams is an extremely efficient player, with a usage rate of 18.7% that is seventh on the team. He’s also one of only two players on St. John’s, along with Vince Cole, with a three-point shooting percentage of more than 30%, averaging 36.8% from long distance.
Vince Cole, Wing
Cole, a First Team NJCAA All-American last season, was the #6 JuCo prospect per jucorecruiting.com, and is off to a solid start this season, averaging 13.3 points and 3.6 rebounds per game, on 49/36/85 shooting splits.
Aside from scoring, Cole doesn’t do much else. Despite being 6-foot-6, he is seventh in rebounding rate on the team, ninth in assist rate, and eighth in defensive rating.
Dylan Addae-Wusu, Wing
Addae-Wusu didn’t come into St. John’s with a ton of hype, as a three-star recruit, but the freshman wing has gotten off to an underrated start so far for the Johnnies, averaging 6.4 points per game, along with 2.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. Addae-Wusu is also second in assist rate (27.7%).
Addae-Wusu was teammates with Posh Alexander at Our Saviour Lutheran in the Bronx, so those two already have some good chemistry going.
Keys to the Game
Pack the Paint
As mentioned previously, St. John’s once again does not have many shooters on its roster, with Vince Cole and Greg Williams being the only players who shoot more than 30% from three-point range. St. John’s is 251st in the country in three-point attempts, and doesn’t knock down many of the ones they do take, as they hit just 29.8% of their three-point shots, on average.
Conversely, St. John’s is 18th in the country in two-point attempts, averaging 45.9 per game. This should play right into Georgetown’s hands, where they can plant Qudus Wahab and Timothy Ighoefe in the paint to make life difficult inside for St. John’s.
Protect the Ball
Georgetown’s turnover issues are going to be exacerbated in this game against a St. John’s team that loves to put the fullcourt or 3/4-court press on its opponents in hopes of hurrying them up and causing mistakes. Mike Anderson’s teams are notorious for doing that, and against a turnover-prone team like Georgetown, that is sure to be a key part of the Johnnies’ gameplan on Sunday night.
Jalen Harris (14 turnovers in the last three games) will be put under the spotlight in this game. With Dante Harris continuing to show he deserves more minutes, the older Harris (34.5% turnover rate) must improve upon his recent string of sloppy play, or Patrick Ewing will need to make an early change in this one.
Use Your Size Advantage
Once again, the Hoyas have a size advantage in this one. Just like they did against Villanova, they will need to prioritize getting the ball down low early and often to Qudus Wahab, and should have success on the boards once again. St. John’s is 169th in the country in rebounding per game.
Let It Fly
St. John’s allows its opponents to shoot an average of 23.3 three-point attempts per game, which is 198th in the country. Opponents are shooting an average of 36.2% on three-pointers this season against St. John’s as well. Jamorko Pickett and Jahvon Blair should let it fly from long range, early and often.
Prediction: Georgetown 73 - St. John’s 68
Georgetown matches up well against this St. John’s team, for the most part. While the Johnnies will press the Hoyas and try to force them into making mistakes, the Hoyas have an advantage on the inside, and the Johnnies don’t have the outside shooting to make Georgetown’s poor perimeter defense pay like Villanova did in the second half on Friday night.
St. John’s doesn’t have a center that can match up with either Wahab or Ighoefe on defense, and none of its big men have the perimeter shooting to make Georgetown’s sophomore big men pay when they are guarding them on defense.
As long as the Hoyas can keep their number of turnovers south of 20 (low bar, I know), I like the Hoyas here.
great article