Scouting Report: Colorado Buffaloes
Can the Hoyas bring the curtains down on the McKinley Wright IV Show on Saturday?
If you’ve been on Twitter this week, you’ve probably seen the name McKinley Wright IV. No, that’s not the name of a midfielder for Duke lacrosse, it’s the name of the star point guard for Colorado, and it’s the guy who will likely determine who wins and who loses Saturday’s first round matchup between Georgetown and Colorado.
Wright, averaging 15.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 5.6 assists, is the center of Colorado’s universe on offense. Stop him, and you stop this team. He is the best (and only) creator on this team, and is the straw that stirs the drink for the Buffs. He can dribble, shoot, pass, and he doesn’t turn the ball over much. He is a great player.
But how about the rest of this Colorado team? Who are the players to know, and what does Georgetown need to do on Saturday to emerge with yet another upset win? Let’s take a look.
Colorado by the Numbers
KenPom Rating: 17th overall
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 115.1 (17th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 92 (29th)
Adjusted Tempo: 66.4 (280)
FG%: 45.7% (94th)
3FG%: 36.7% (54th)
FT: 82.2% (2nd)
REB/G: 35 (191st)
3PA/G: 20.4 (229th)
FTA/G: 14.0 (237th)
Rotation Players
McKinley Wright IV, Point Guard, Senior
Colorado owes their NCAA Tournament berth almost completely to Wright. He’s just a really great player. He plays extremely poised at all times, has great vision, and can score from anywhere. Wright leads Colorado in scoring and usage rate (25.1%), but also has a sky-high assist rate of 36.2%, highlighting his playmaking ability.
Look at this play. Wright has four (4!) guys surrounding him, and he calmly kicks it out to Schwartz for a wide-open three. This is the Colorado offense. Have Wright attract all the attention and then move the ball to the perimeter and find the open man.
The one weakness for Wright, if you want to nitpick, is his three-point shooting, where he only takes three attempts per game and hits them at a 31% percentage. This should help the Georgetown D, who has had their bigs drop on pick-and-rolls, and should be able to do so with Wright, who would otherwise destroy Georgetown in the pick-and-roll.
D’Shawn Schwartz, Wing, Senior
Colorado doesn’t have a clear second-best player on their team, but if forced to pick one, it would probably be Schwartz, who shoots 37% from three and averages 8.9 points per game. Schwartz has a fairly limited skillset, as most of his time is spent floating on the perimeter and getting kick outs from a penetrating Wright, where Schwartz can then knock down open three-pointers. Expect Jamorko Pickett to draw the defensive assignment here.
Jeriah Horne, Forward, Senior
Horne is a shot-making stretch-4 who loves to take three-pointers, and makes them at a high rate too, shooting a scorching 42% from beyond the arc this season. Horne doesn’t start for Colorado, but usually finishes games for them.
Defensively is where Horne hurts this team. He doesn’t move well and can get caught sleeping on backdoor cuts. According to EvanMiya.com, Horne has the second-worst DBPR on the team, and the tape reflects that. The foot speed on the following play is…not great! This is an area that Chudier Bile and Jamorko Pickett should have success in, attacking Horne off the dribble.
Eli Parquet, Guard, Junior
Parquet is an athletic combo guard who is Wright’s starting backcourt mate. Parquet is a solid player who does a little bit of everything for the Buffs. Perhaps his greatest asset is his defense. He is a sticky defender who could give Jahvon Blair some trouble with his length and lateral quickness. Scoring-wise, don’t expect him to do much other than move the ball and get open for looks from Wright. He averages only 5.2 points per game.
Evan Battey, Forward/Center, Junior
Battey, at 6-foot-8, 262 pounds, is a slightly smaller Josh Smith who can move on his feet a little better. Battey operates in the post for Colorado and is fairly skilled for his size. He likes posting up and trying to score, but Battey is also used in a lot of ball screen actions, which makes sense because of how large he is. It’s a role he does well in, like here on the handoff to Wright, who uses Battey’s frame to create separation from his defender so he can get into the paint and knock down the shot.
Defensively, like his frontcourt mate Horne, is where Battey can be picked on. Chudier Bile should be able to take him off the dribble and get to the rim, but really, Battey will have a tough time guarding anyone in Georgetown’s frontcourt.
Dallas Walton, Center, Senior
Walton starts for Colorado as a senior, but only plays 15.3 minutes per game. At 7-feet, Walton may be needed to play a bigger role in this game against Georgetown’s sophomore bigs, but that’s a matchup that will still favor the Hoyas. Walton is limited athletically and does not move well. While he has the height to give Qudus Wahab some trouble on his post-ups, he is not particularly strong, and this is matchup Wahab should win.
Maddox Daniels, Wing, Senior
Shot-making wing who is a great off-ball player and will be someone Georgetown will need to keep their head on a swivel for. Shoots 36% from three. Not someone who will break you down off the dribble and make plays for others.
Tristan Da Silva, Wing, Freshman
A long and stringy freshman wing who doesn’t do much. Impact will mostly be felt on defense, where he can use his length to muck up passing lanes for Georgetown.
Keeshawn Barthelemy, Guard, Freshman
Wright’s backup at point guard. A decent player but undersized, and a poor shooter.
When Colorado Has the Ball
It all comes down to stopping Wright. The Colorado offense is predicated on Wright getting into the paint, collapsing the defense, and moving the ball to the open man on the perimeter. The Colorado offense is a beautiful one. There is plenty of off-ball movement and ball screen actions, and Georgetown cannot fall asleep when their man does not have the ball.
This play here is a great illustration of how precise the Colorado offense. This is a designed play for Wright the whole way, but the ball touches four Colorado players before Wright finds himself alone on the wing with one defender in front of him. Because of the play design, Wright is able to catch the ball, cut right, and get to the hoop with the defender’s momentum carrying him the other way. It’s a great play, and well-executed.
Here’s another example of why you can’t fall asleep against this offense. Parquet catches his man ball-watching for a split second, and cuts to an open hoops for a layup. Too easy when you have Wright as the one passing you the ball.
The defense of Dante Harris is going to determine this game. If Harris can’t handle Wright himself and Georgetown needs to send help, Wright will easily kick it to the open man, and will get the Hoyas’ defense on their heels all day long. He is an extremely willing passer.
Just look at the ball movement on this play against USC. It’s gorgeous.
Coming off an outstanding Big East Tournament, in which he was named Most Outstanding Player, Harris will once again be in the spotlight in this matchup. He’s going to have play 35+ minutes, because Georgetown doesn’t have another guard on its roster who can stick with Wright one-on-one.
If the Hoyas can’t stick with Wright individually on defense, they won’t have much of a chance on Saturday. Luckily for Georgetown, Harris is playing at a very high level right now, and is the right kind of defender who can stick with Wright and keep him (relatively) in check.
Another challenge for Georgetown will be what to do when Colorado’s senior center Dallas Walton comes off the floor. The Buffs like to go with Battey at the 5 and Horne at the 4 when Walton isn’t playing, and it helps their offense stretch the floor, although at the cost of limiting their rim protection.
Wahab and Ighoefe will be able to punish both players on offense, but defensively may struggle to play away from the basket when covering Battey. Battey likes to post up around the basket sometimes, but can also play out of the high post and around the perimeter too, an area where Wahab and Ighoefe both look like deer in the headlights still, sometimes.
Something to note for Colorado also is that they are the second-best free throw-shooting team in the country. Georgetown did a good job of staying out of foul trouble in the Big East Tournament, and that will need to keep up in the first round, because Colorado will make you pay from the charity stripe, shooting a sky-high 82% as a team. Biting on pump fakes could be an issue against a strong three-point shooting team like Colorado.
What will be helpful for the Hoyas is that Colorado is not a particularly aggressive team in terms of drawing contact. They are 216th in the nation in free throw rate (29.9%).
When Georgetown Has the Ball
Attack, attack, attack. Georgetown needs to be aggressive in this game. That was their calling card in the Big East Tournament and it will need to continue against a smaller Colorado team that does not play with any kind of edge on defense.
The frontcourt will be where Georgetown can make Colorado pay. Both Qudus Wahab and Chudier Bile will be able to go to work on Dallas Walton and Evan Battey, respectively, and Jeriah Horne is a turnstile on defense as well.
Bile’s athleticism should help him attack Battey and Horne off closeouts, kind of like right here:
Elsewhere on offense, Georgetown’s guards will have to work for their points on Saturday. Eli Parquet is a tough defender who will likely guard Don Carey/Jahvon Blair, and Blair will need to find ways to shake loose, because Georgetown will need his scoring.
In the pick-and-roll, Colorado likes to bring the roll defender up towards the pick. Not necessarily in a hard hedge, but at about the same level of the screener. This will likely help Dante Harris, who has shown the ability to split ball screens when defenders come up and engage. Harris is not a great three-point shooter off the dribble yet, and so drop coverage would be a bit more problematic for him to deal with. Luckily, Colorado usually doesn’t do that.
Prediction: Georgetown 65 - Colorado 60
Colorado has the best player in this game, by a fairly wide margin. McKinley Wright deserves most of the hype he has received, and will be a major headache for Georgetown on Saturday. He carries this Colorado team. The focus for Georgetown should be more about limiting Wright’s assist numbers on Saturday. He will get his points, but if he is racking up the assists too, that means he is finding his open teammates on the perimeter for three-point looks. No bueno.
Wright is awesome, but Georgetown has more talent on its roster from top to bottom, and it’s the tougher team too. It will have the advantage on the boards, has more size, and has the defensive personnel to limit this Colorado offense, as long as they stay alert off the ball. That depth should play to their advantage, and they have the players to pick on Colorado’s defense. It’s what they do on defense that will determine this game.
Wright is going to get his on Saturday. But Harris should be able to make him work for everything, and it should allow Georgetown to stay put on Colorado’s shooters that they put around Wright. Colorado will try to draw Wahab out of the paint to allow Wright to go to work, and it will be an interesting chess match to see if they’re successful in doing so when they put Battey at the 5.