Opponent Preview: San Diego State Aztecs
Tipping off at midnight EST, the Hoyas face their first legitimate opponent of the season, in what will be a major measuring stick game for 2-1 Georgetown.
San Diego State Aztecs
Head Coach: Brian Dutcher (5th year, 99-32 career record at SDSU)
Conference: Mountain West Conference (MWC)
Current Record: 3-1
Last Season’s Record: 23-5
Projected Starting Lineup: PG Trey Pulliam, SG Lamont Butler, SF Matt Bradley, PF Keshad Johnson, C Nathan Mensah
Aztecs By the Numbers
KenPom Rank: #39
KenPom Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 105.3 (86th)
KenPom Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 89.7 (17th)
KenPom Adjusted Tempo: 288th
FG%: 40.1% (295th)
3FG%: 24.6% (349th)
FT%: 69.1% (193rd)
Turnovers per game: 12.8 (226th)
Total Rebounds per Game: 35.8 (214th)
Three-Point Attempts per Game: 17.3 (323rd)
Players to Watch
Matt Bradley, Guard, 6’4”
Bradley is the best player on San Diego State, leading the team in scoring (14.5 PPG) while also averaging 4.8 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. Bradley lacks length, but is a burly player who plays bigger than his listed height. At his size, expect Aminu Mohammed to take on the assignment of keeping him in check tonight.
While Bradley is a major source of offensive production for the Aztecs, he’s a poor shooter, averaging only 40.9% field goal shooting and 18.2% three-point shooting.
Nathan Mensah, Center, 6’10”
After giving up a 25-point double-double to Siena center Jackson Stormo in the last game they played, Georgetown will have its work cut out in stopping senior center Nathan Mensah, who is averaging 11.3 points and 7.8 rebounds per game.
While Mensah isn’t a skilled low post player, he is efficient at finding opportunities around the rim on offense, and is a strong shot-blocking presence on the other end of the floor, averaging 1.8 blocks per game to start the season. His athleticism could pose a problem for Georgetown’s centers in this game, and this is one matchup that will be a major test for the Hoyas on Thursday night.
Trey Pulliam, Guard, 6’3”
Pulliam is the conductor for the SDSU offense, averaging 2.8 assists per game with a 21% assist rate, both of which lead the team. With a usage rate of 19.9% that ranks sixth on the team, Pulliam is not a focal point of the Aztec offense, but he’s an efficient ball-handler who limits mistakes (only an 8% turnover rate) and keeps things moving smoothly.
Keys to the Game
Find the Open Man
The Aztecs have the best defense that the Hoyas have faced this season, ranked 17th overall by KenPom. With several athletic wings that are switchable on D for San Diego State, Georgetown is not going to be able to just beat guys one-on-one to score on offense.
When watching the tape, the SDSU defense was prone to over-helping at times, in a similar manner to what has plagued Georgetown. If you can get the ball moving side-to-side, you can get this defense out of sorts and find an open man on the perimeter. The Hoyas will have to stay patient to make this work, though.
Stay Home
SDSU is not a good three-point shooting team, and they don’t have many players who can create for themselves and others with the ball. What this means is the Hoyas need to keep it simple on defense. Don’t overhelp on a drive by a player who can’t get past his first defender. Be mindful of perimeter shooters, but don’t over-extend and leave open passing lanes around the paint.
Win the Battle on the Boards
Despite the presence of Mensah, the Aztecs are vulnerable on the boards, ranking 214th in the nation in rebounds per game, with 35.8. The Hoyas, however, haven’t gotten off to a great start this year on the boards themselves. Can they fix that in this game to help give themselves an added boost? That will be something to watch. Look for Aminu Mohammed to attack the boards big time in this game.
Centers Step Up
If Georgetown is going to win this game, they need someone to go toe-to-toe with Mensah, especially on defense. Can Tim Ighoefe stay on the floor in this game and contain Mensah without fouling? This may be a better game for Malcolm Wilson, who has better mobility to move around with Mensah and defend pick-and-rolls.
Play Fast
San Diego State is one of the slowest teams in the country, averaging 67.1 possessions per 40 minutes. The Hoyas, conversely, are at their best when they turn defense into offense and get out in the open floor. If Georgetown can speed this game up, they can get SDSU out of their comfort zone and take advantage of a defense that is at its best in settled, halfcourt settings.
Prediction: San Diego State 68 - Georgetown 62
At first glance, going up against the 39th-ranked team in the country on KenPom, this appears to be a tough early test for Georgetown, who is currently ranked 88th according to KenPom. But digging deeper into the matchup, this is a game that the Hoyas can win.
While SDSU is 3-1 on the season, their last game was a narrow 68-62 win over UT-Arlington. Before that? Barely beating Arizona State, 65-53. This is a team that is led by a good coach, and has a good defense, but is vulnerable on the boards and does not have the offensive creators that it has had in the past.
Georgetown is set up to have success on defense if they can improve on the overly aggressive defense that has plagued them to start the season. With Aminu Mohammed on Matt Bradley, the Hoyas should be able to have success against a SDSU offense that lacks other scoring options outside of Bradley.
The concern here for Georgetown is what they can do to limit Mensah. We’ll see just how big of an issue the center position will be for Georgetown this season based on how they do against Mensah, who will have the advantage on both offense and defense. If Georgetown can’t stop him with just one man, that is going to expose them defensively in other areas as well. One of Ighoefe, Wilson, or Mutombo needs to step up.