Opponent Preview: American University Eagles
Tuesday's game is as close to a must-win game as it can get this early in the season.
American University Eagles
Head Coach: Mike Brennan (9th year, 100-129 career record at American)
Brennan served four year as an assistant coach at Georgetown under John Thompson III, from 2009-13.
Conference: Patriot League
Current Record: 2-0
Last Season’s Record: 4-6
Projected Starting Lineup: PG Colin Smalls, SG Stacy Beckton, SF Connor Nelson, PF Johnny O’Neil, C Josh Alexander
Eagles By the Numbers
KenPom Rank: #255
KenPom Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 93.2 (300th in the country)
KenPom Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 100.1 (185th)
KenPom Adjusted Tempo: 147th
FG%: 46.2 (138th)
3FG%: 30.6 (230th)
FT%: 65.2 (255th)
Turnovers per game: 13.0 (185th)
Total Rebounds per Game: 37.5 (170th)
Three-Point Attempts per Game: 18.0 (303rd)
Players to Watch
Stacy Beckton, Guard, 6’4”
Beckton is American’s top player, and he can light it up on offense, averaging 21 points per game so far this season, which includes shooting 66.7% from the field and 57.1% on three-point attempts. This will be Georgetown’s top priority to stop on Tuesday night. Beckton is also the team’s leading rebounder so far this season, averaging 7 boards per game.
Connor Nelson, Forward, 6’6”
Nelson is one of three Eagles players averaging 10 points per game to start the season. At 6’6”, Nelson provides American with length on the wing, and he’s a capable three-point shooter too, taking an average of 2.5 threes per game and knocking them down at a 40% clip. Nelson is the team’s second-leading rebounder, averaging 6 rebounds per game.
Josh Alexander, Forward, 6’8”
Alexander is the starting 5 for American, and is listed at 6’8”, 243 pounds. For a big man, his rebounding numbers to start this season have been really poor, averaging only 4.5 boards through two games. His rebound rate of 9.3% is sixth on the team.
Alexander isn’t a three-point threat, and doesn’t play a large part in the overall execution of the American offense. Georgetown’s centers should be able to hang in the paint when Alexander is on the floor, which will aid the Hoyas’ defense, theoretically.
Johnny O’Neil, Forward, 6’9”
O’Neil, at 6’9”, presents a matchup issue for Georgetown when the Hoyas are on defense. O’Neil is an athletic, shot-making four who can stretch the floor (shooting 37% on 5.5 threes a game), and his ability to put the ball on the floor and make plays for his teammates could be an issue for Georgetown, based on the defensive performances of Kaiden Rice and Jalin Billingsley against Dartmouth.
Both players will need to up their compete level on Tuesday to limit O’Neil’s impact on this game.
Keys to the Game
Crash the Boards
American is 170th in the country so far in rebounds per game. The Eagles are not strong on the boards, and Georgetown will need to work to generate extra possessions to aid their struggling offense.
The starting frontcourt for American of Johnny O’Neil and Josh Alexander, in particular, is weak in the rebounding department. O’Neil is second-to-last on the team in rebounding rate, at 7.1%.
If Timothy Ighoefe could return for this game, his return would be a big plus for Georgetown in the battle on the boards.
Press
Georgetown’s press had some success against Dartmouth on Saturday in the first half. For whatever reason, Patrick Ewing decided to go away from it in the second half until it was too late to get back in the game. In an effort to help their defense, Ewing and the coaching staff have to give serious consideration to pressing more in this game, from start to finish.
Attack Inside
American’s strength on defense is keeping opponents in check from behind the arc, as they are allowing the opposition to shoot just 19% from three in their first two games.
Conversely, their opponents are shooting 55.1% on two-point shots, which is 257th in nation. Georgetown needs to be patient and attack downhill to generate looks around the rim, which should benefit players like Aminu Mohammed, Jordan Riley, and the Hoya big men.
Prediction: American 72 - Georgetown 67
Luckily for Georgetown, American does not rely on the three-point shot like Dartmouth does, and they don’t shoot it particularly well when they do attempt a three, shooting just 30.6% from three to start the season. However, the presence of scoring guard Stacy Beckton should be a concern for Georgetown, who has trouble stopping these kinds of players in the Ewing Era. If the Hoyas can’t limit Beckton, that’s going to create lots of open looks from deep for the Eagles.
Unfortunately, for Georgetown, the weakness of American, their frontcourt, doesn’t really line up with Georgetown’s strength (actually, what even is their strength right now?). The Georgetown frontcourt is in similarly rough shape right now, so it’s hard to see them being able to pick on American down low right now. The potential return of Timothy Ighoefe would perhaps give Georgetown a boost in this department.
Things were so rough for Georgetown in the season opener that it’s hard to have faith in the coaching staff to get this team right in just two days’ worth of practice to be able to beat American. That’s where this program is at currently.
American is off to a nice 2-0 start this season, and have 4 of their top 5 players in terms of minutes per game from last season back. This is team with a good mix of veteran experience and young talent, and they have the talent to beat Georgetown on Tuesday night. If Becton can be a star, and O’Neill can hit some shots on the perimeter, the Eagles can pull off the upset.
We are going to see what this Georgetown team is made of on Tuesday night. You can’t afford to begin your season with an 0-2 record from losses to Dartmouth and American, you just can’t. This team is in a rebuilding year, but losing to both Dartmouth and American back-to-back would be unacceptable. It’s hard to call the second game of the season a must-win game, but this is pretty darn close to one.
Let’s see what the Hoyas have got. Can they show us something?