Opponent Preview: Marquette Golden Eagles
After a holiday break, the Hoyas take the hardwood again on Saturday night, hosting Marquette at McDonough Arena.
Marquette Golden Eagles
Head Coach: Steve Wojciechowski (7th season at Marquette; 120-86 career record)
Conference: Big East
Current Record: 5-5 (1-3 Big East)
Last Season’s Record: 18-12, 8-10 (6th in Big East)
Projected Starting Lineup: PG D.J. Carton, SG Koby McEwen, SF Jamal Cain, PF Dawson Garcia, C Theo John
Golden Eagles By the Numbers
KenPom Rank: #53
KenPom Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 111.7 (18th in the country)
KenPom Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 96.3 (82nd)
KenPom Adjusted Tempo: 246th
FG%: 46.3 (108th)
3FG%: 39.6 (24th)
FT%: 72.3 (102nd)
Turnovers per game: 14.6 (116th)
Total Rebounds per Game: 39.0 (95th)
Three-Point Attempts per Game: 20.7 (207th)
Players to Watch
D.J. Carton, Point Guard
Carton was Marquette’s prized pickup this offseason, when they secured his commitment after he decided to transfer from Ohio State after one season. As a Buckeye, Carton averaged 10.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game on 48% shooting.
Now, with Marquette, Carton is averaging 11.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game, small increases considering he has gone from averaging 24 minutes per game to 29 minutes per game.
Many mistakenly expected Carton to come in and replace most of the scoring production left by the graduation of Markus Howard, but Carton hasn’t been anywhere close to the same scorer as Howard, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing for Marquette, who has had a more well-balanced offense this season.
Carton leads the team in assist percentage, and is a solid point guard for this team who is a capable shooter as well (38% three-point shooter).
Dawson Garcia, Forward
Garcia was Marquette’s top-rated incoming freshman this season, and has been one of their best players this season. Although he doesn’t have the flashiest game, Garcia is a prototypical stretch-four who can shoot, pass, and rebound at a a high level.
Jamorko Pickett matched up on Garcia on the defensive side of the floor should help Georgetown limit one of Marquette’s best players, as Pickett has the length to challenge Garcia and limit his shot-making ability.
Garcia leads the team in rebounds (6.7 per game), and is also shooting 38.5% from the three-point line, en route to averaging 12.7 points per game, which is second-most on Marquette.
Justin Lewis, Wing
Lewis, from Baltimore, has been one of the best under-the-radar freshman players in the country, in my opinion. As a freshman, Lewis has become somewhat of a glue guy for this team, with his tough play and ability to contribute on offense and defense for this team.
Lewis is sixth on the team in scoring average (8.3), and tied for third in rebounds per game (6.2).
He’ll come off the bench for the Golden Eagles on Saturday night, and will be a tough test for the Hoyas’ reserves, with how hard he plays. If Jamari Sibley gets some run, that could be an interesting potential matchup to watch on both ends of the floor.
Theo John, Center
Credit: Marquette Athletics
John is back for his eighth season with Marquette…or at least that’s what it feels like. John is the nucleus of a Marquette defense that has regressed badly in Big East play, and the Golden Eagles will need him to limit Qudus Wahab in the interior, something that he is capable of doing, despite giving up a few inches to Wahab.
John has taken to posting up with the ball a bit more as a senior, and relies on a standard jump hook to score when he has the ball. He is averaging 4.7 shot attempts per game this year, which is a career-high. His jump hook is not the most efficient shot, and is something that Wahab can sit on if he is prepared for this matchup.
Greg Elliott, Wing
Elliott, a junior, is statistically Marquette’s best shooter this season. He leads the team in effective field goal percentage (68.3%) and true shooting percentage (68.3%), and is averaging 5.4 points per game off the bench.
Elliott isn’t going to beat you off the dribble, but he is a spot-up threat on the perimeter, and someone whose outside shooting ability could put some strain on the Georgetown defense.
Keys to the Game
Defend the Three
Marquette has a roster full of shooters, and that’s going to be an issue for a Georgetown team that is allowing opponents to shoot an average of 26 three-pointers a game at a 33% clip.
Greg Elliott, Jamal Cain, Koby McEwen, Dawson Garcia, and D.J. Carton are all shooting better than 35% from beyond the arc, and the Hoyas will need to keep their heads on a swivel to limit Marquette’s opportunities from the three-point line.
Make It Rain
On the other hand, Georgetown is shooting 36.5% on three-pointers this season, which is 75th in the country, and that goes well with Marquette’s struggles in defending the three.
The Golden Eagles, so far in conference play, are allowing opponents to shoot a scorching 44.5% from three, and are giving up an average of 27.5 three-point attempts per game. The Hoyas should be able to get open looks from long distance, and this could mean big games for Don Carey and Jahvon Blair are on tap.
Marquette’s defense has been awful against Big East opponents. Through four games, the Golden Eagles are the worst defense in the Big East, according to KenPom, giving up 122.6 points per 100 possessions, which is somehow even worse than Georgetown, which is second to last in the Big East, allowing 113.5 points per 100
On-Ball Defense
This could be what the game comes down to. Marquette’s biggest issue this season has been turnovers. The team is ranked 116th in the nation in turnovers per game, at 14.6. But Georgetown does not do well in turning its opponents over. The Hoyas are ranked 329th in the country in defensive turnover rate.
Against a Marquette team that is turning the ball over on 21% of its possessions, it would benefit the Hoyas to really up the compete level when defending ball-handlers, in order to force turnovers against a fellow Big East competitor that also loves to cough the ball up.
Despite the turnover issue, Marquette has the 17th-most efficient offense in the nation. The Hoyas will need to stay in front of their man, and also be sure to box out, to have a chance at pulling out a win.
Rebound
In addition to their strong offense, the Golden Eagles are also good at getting second chance possessions, as they are a top-50 offensive rebounding rate in the country, aided by Justin Lewis’ massive 15% offensive rebounding rate.
Overall, Marquette is 95th in the country in rebounds per game.
Helping the Hoyas in this one will be Jamorko Pickett, who is pulling down 8.1 of his 9.3 rebounds per game on the defensive side of the floor. Georgetown is eighth in the country in defensive rebounds per game, so this will be strength vs. strength for the two teams.
Prediction: Georgetown 88 - Marquette 86
Both teams in this game like to shoot the three, love to turn the ball over, and also love to let the other team shoot the three. I see this being a very high-scoring game because of that, but think that a holiday break will lead to a well-rested Georgetown team coming out strong at home against a Marquette team that it matches up decently against.
Based on Marquette’s past games, this game will come down to turnovers, which likely will help Marquette more than it does Georgetown. Per AnonymousEagle.com, when Marquette turns the ball over less than their opponent, under Steve Wojciechowski, they are 66-25, a winning percentage of 72.5%.
When they lose the turnover battle, however, they are 49-55, a winning percentage of 47.1%
We’ll see if this holiday break helped cure the Hoyas’ issue with turnovers at all. Facing a bad Marquette defense could be just what the doctor ordered, but the Hoyas will need to be ready to play hard against a Golden Eagles team that is riding a three-game losing streak.