Georgetown By the Numbers
What the advanced statistics say about Georgetown's first five games of the season
Five games into the season is enough of a sample size to begin making some inferences about what this Georgetown team’s strengths and weaknesses are based on the underlying statistics beneath the Hoyas’ 3-2 start to the 2023-24 season.
With a tip of the cap to KenPom.com, Haslametrics.com, CBB Analytics, BartTorvik.com, and Sports Reference CBB, here are some observations on Georgetown’s start to the season, based on what the number say.
Basic Numbers
FG%: 46.3% (126th)
Opp. FG%: 42.6% (205th)
FTA: 21.4 (138th)
FT%: 67.3% (250th)
Total Rebounds/G: 40.0 (92nd)
Turnovers/G: 14.6 (66th)
PPG: 78.4 (131st)
Opp. 3PA: 23.4 (245th)
Opp. 3P%: 28.2% (86th)
Opp. Total Rebounds/G: 33.2 (99th)
Team Leaders
Scoring: Dontrez Styles (17.0), Jayden Epps (16.8), Supreme Cook (12.0), Rowan Brumbaugh (11.6)
Rebounding: Supreme Cook (8.2), Dontrez Styles (7.6), Wayne Bristol Jr. (5.0), Drew Fielder (4.6)
Assists: Jayden Epps (5.0), Rowan Brumbaugh (2.4), Jay Heath (2.2)
Three-Point Shooting (> 2 3PA/G): Dontrez Styles (40%), Jay Heath (38.1%), Jayden Epps (37.8%)
Plus/Minus: Dontrez Styles (+43), Cam Bacote (+42), Wayne Bristol Jr. (+38), Supreme Cook (+36), Jayden Epps (+33)
The difference in shooting profiles between this season and last season
One of the major weaknesses of Patrick Ewing’s teams was shot selection. Ewing’s Hoyas gave up a lot of threes, and didn’t take many on the other end. They were at a math disadvantage from the jump in nearly every game.
Under Cooley, the team’s shot profile has flipped. (Numbers via BartTorvik)
% of Shots That Are Dunks (2022—>2023): 5.4% —> 6.1%
% of Shots That Are Close Twos: 31% —> 37.2%
% of Shots That Are Farther Twos: 38% —> 18.6%
% of Shots That Are Threes: 31% —> 44.3%
Three-point attempts are way up (13%!) under Cooley, while midrange twos are way down. In the modern era of college basketball, that is a shot profile for a team that is much more conducive to winning.
For the season, the team is 76th in the country in three-point attempts per game, at 25.2. Last year, they finished 302nd, averaging 18.7 attempts per game.
Drew Fielder’s advanced defensive numbers surprising
Fielder, who was replaced in the starting lineup by Jay Heath for the Rutgers game, and has come off the bench since, had his fair share of struggles in the first few games of the season, especially guarding players out on the perimeter.
In the last few games however, Fielder has started to look more comfortable on both ends of the floor. Defensively, the numbers indicate Fielder isn’t the weak link that some claimed he was early on.
According to EvanMiya.com, Fielder is fourth on the team in DBPR, a rating that reflects the defensive value a player brings to his team when he’s on the court, and second among rotation players (removing Ryan Mutombo and Donovan Grant).
Fielder is also second on the team in defensive rating (95.8). Wayne Bristol Jr. is first, at 86.3.
Need for speed
While Ed Cooley’s teams have never been known for playing very fast, considering the composition of this year’s team— and the lack of frontcourt depth— playing small, and therefore faster, should be a priority to accentuate this team’s strengths.
For context, here are the finishes for Ed Cooley’s last four teams at Providence according to KenPom.com’s Adjusted Tempo (Possessions/40 min.) metric.
2019-20: 68.4 (171st)
2020-21: 66.3 (270th)
2021-22: 65.3 (275th)
2022-23: 66.7 (202nd)
This year, Georgetown’s AdjT through five games is 69.4, which is 184th in the nation. So this Ed Cooley team is playing faster than his teams usually do, but is it good enough?
According to Haslametrics, Georgetown’s pace is 70.81 (125th in the country), and according to CBB Analytics, Georgetown’s pace of 67.9 is in the 37th percentile in the country. For a team that relies mainly on its guards and wings, those numbers can and should be higher.
Playing fast also means getting into your offensive sets sooner, which has been a major issue for this Georgetown team so far this season.
When Georgetown takes a shot with 10-20 seconds on the shot clock, they have a points per chance (PPP) of 1.01, which is in the 90th percentile. However, when they take their time and take a shot later in the shot clock, between 0-10 seconds left on the clock, their PPP goes down to 0.86 (49th percentile).
Playing faster doesn’t just mean pushing the ball up the court faster, it also means shooting earlier in the clock and being more aggressive offensively. This will be something the coaching staff will have to address throughout the season with this team.
While Georgetown isn’t turning its opponents over much right now (6.2 steals per game is 246th in the country), it’s also not taking advantage of transition opportunities when it does force opponents into mistakes. The Hoyas are 235th in the country in Haslametrics’ PPSt metric (10.58), which measures field goal attempts that occur ten seconds or less after a steal.
Wayne Bristol Jr. is an analytics darling
The box score numbers aren’t eye-popping, but Wayne Bristol Jr. has proven himself to be an integral part of the Georgetown rotation so far this season, while averaging a modest 17.4 minutes per game.
If going by the per-40 minutes projections, Bristol Jr. is the team’s second-best rebounder (11.5 rebound per 40) behind Ryan Mutombo, and leads the team in blocks per 40 (1.4).
His total rebound rate is 16.1%, second on the team, while his block rate of 3.8% leads the team.
Bristol Jr. also has the team’s best defensive rating (86.3) by a significant margin, with Drew Fielder being closest, at 95.8. Bristol Jr. leads the team in Defensive Box Plus/Minus by a mile too, at 5.7. DBPM is a box score estimate of the defensive points per 100 possessions a player contributes above a league-average player.
The next closest player to Bristol? Cam Bacote, at 1.4.
One more stat for you: Bristol leads the team in Hakeem%, which is CBB Analytics’ stat that combines a player’s block rate and steal rate. Bristol’s rate of 10% trumps Supreme Cook’s rate of 4.4%, which is second-best on the team.
Need to get to rim more
Considering the team’s deficiencies in the frontcourt right now, it’s not entirely surprising to see Georgetown struggling to get shots down low, but a weak frontcourt doesn’t entirely excuse not attacking the rim altogether.
Currently, the percentage of shots for Georgetown that are near-proximity to the basket is 32.81%, according to Haslametrics.com, good for 316th in the country.
Per CBB Analytics, Georgetown percentage of field goal attempts at the rim through five games is 28.4%, which is 218th in the country. The percentage of FGA in the paint (15.9%) is even worse, good for 279th in Division 1.
When Georgetown is shooting at the rim, they’re doing pretty well though. The Hoyas are shooting 75% on shots at the rim, which is 21st in the country.
Getting abused in the paint
Georgetown’s opponents are having their way in the paint right now. According to Haslametrics, Hoya opponents have a NPAR (near-proximity FG attempts per 100 possessions) of 31.89, which is 309th in the country. The percentage of opponents’ shots that are near-proximity (defined as a layup, dunk, or tip-in) is 37.57%, which is 290th in the country.
Georgetown is also giving up 32.8 points in the paint per game, which is in the 45th percentile in Division 1.
The Hoyas are also giving up a lot of second chance opportunities. Per Haslametrics, the Hoyas’ rating of 17.30 in potential points allowed off of second chances vs. the average opponent is the worst rating in Division 1 right now. Opponents are shooting 68.4% on putback field goal attempts right now, which is in the 24th percentile.
Compounding issues are the fact that Supreme Cook and Drew Fielder are not staying out of foul trouble. Cook (2.8) and Fielder (3.4) are averaging the most personal fouls per game on the roster right now.
That issue will become likely exacerbated in Big East play when Georgetown doesn’t have the size advantage that it boasts in most of its nonconference matchups right now.
Turnovers killing team
Yeah…doesn’t take many numbers to point this out. But let’s dive a little deeper just to show how much this turnover issue is dragging this team down.
Georgetown is averaging 14.6 turnovers per game, which is 66th in the country right now. For comparison’s sake, last season, the team finished 189th in the country, averaging 12.3 turnovers per game.
Georgetown’s turnover percentage of 17.5% is in the 27th percentile in the country, and when they turn the ball over, they are very susceptible to giving up fastbreak points.
Georgetown’s team rating for potential breakaway points allowed off of steals vs. the average opponent is 14.36, according to Haslametrics, which ranks fifth from the bottom in Division 1.
Opponents are averaging 16.2 points per game off of Georgetown turnovers (282nd in the nation) and are averaging 15.8 fastbreak points per game (338th). The percentage of opponents’ points that comes off of fastbreak opportunities is 22.5%, which is 350th in the country.
That is really bad.
The good news is, if Georgetown can take care of the ball more and improve its transition defense, there is a clear way for this team to take a significant jump in performance over the course of the season.
But these numbers are so glaringly bad, it would be surprising to see a major improvement in just one season. We will see what miracles the coaching staff can work in the next 3.5 months.
Jayden Epps: Offensive star
While ball security will continue to be something Epps has to focus on improving, his offensive stats in other areas are very strong.
Epps is:
Second in PPG (16.8)
First in APG (5.0)
First in AST% (28.5%)
Fourth in eFG% (53.8%)
First in 3PAr (56.9%)
Along with Styles, Epps is proving to be the team’s most reliable scorer early on.
One area he can also build on is getting to the free throw line more— Epps’ free throw attempt rate is 23.1%, which is 8th on the team.
Best Lineups
Judging lineups on a limited number of possessions only five games in doesn’t always paint an accurate picture, but so far, the lineups that Georgetown has the most success with are:
Epps-Heath-Bristol-Styles-Cook (14 possessions, +101.5 Net, +14 plus/minus)
Epps-Bacote-Bristol-Styles-Cook (19 possessions, +92.6 Net, +19 plus/minus)
Epps-Brumbaugh-Styles-Fielder-Cook (35 possessions, +14.2 Net, +5 plus/minus)
Georgetown’s current starting lineup of Epps-Brumbaugh-Heath-Styles-Cook has a net rating of -14.9 in 67 possessions.
The team’s best shooting lineup so far has been Epps-Heath-Bristol-Styles-Cook. That lineup is sporting an eFG% of 84.6%, and is shooting three’s at a high rate, with 46.2% of their field goal attempts coming from behind the arc. The next best shooting lineup is Epps-Bacote-Bristol-Styles-Cook (77.3% eFG%, 50% 3PAr).