Three Games In: Evaluating the Hoyas
As they prepare for their first real test of the season out west, what have (or haven't) we learned about Georgetown so far?
With the first three games of Georgetown’s season in the rearview mirror, and the first real test of the season coming up on Thanksgiving against San Diego State, it’s time to take stock of the 2021-22 Georgetown Hoyas and see what we can glean from the first three games of the season.
Here’s what I know, what I think, and what I don’t know about this year’s team so far.
What I Know
Don Carey is the team’s best player
A fun game to play when looking at the advanced stats for Georgetown is finding the number of statistical categories that Don Carey leads the team in. Let’s take a look!
1st in PPG (15.3)
T-1st in APG (4.3)
1st in 3P% (61.5%)
1st in ORTG (149.5)
1st in PER (29.7)
1st in eFG% (74.1%)
1st in TS% (77.1%)
1st in Assist Rate (32.5%)
1st in Win Shares (0.7)
1st in Box Plus/Minus (9.2)
I could go on and tell you about the additions that Carey has added to his game this offseason and how he looks like a different player from last season, but I think I’ll let the above stats do the talking.
Carey has been excellent, and looks better than he did last year. That’s good news for Georgetown.
Aminu Mohammed is the team’s most talented player
Hot take, I know. But it bears highlighting, because of how important Mohammed is to this team’s success. Mohammed looks like a grown man out there already, and has showed an incredible motor and energy thus far through three games.
Defensively, he has lived up to the hype, taking on team’s best scorers on that end of the floor. His defensive performance against American’s Stacy Beckton Jr. was an early highlight for Mohammed in his Georgetown career.
On offense, Mohammed has shown the ability to penetrate through a defense and attack the hoop unlike anyone else on the team. His penchant for collapsing a defense should open up plenty of opportunities on the wing for Georgetown’s shooters, once Mohammed learns to make plays for his teammates more than he has early on.
Aminu Mohammed is the team’s best rebounder not named Tim Ighoefe
Another thing that Mohammed excels at, which ties back to his motor, is his rebounding. The Nigerian native is second on the Hoyas in total rebounding rate (13.9%) and is averaging 10.1 rebounds per 40 minutes. He’s shown a little bit of everything so far for Georgetown, which was his reputation in high school. He can score, defend, and rebound. He brings a lot to the table.
Dante Harris is just fine
There were some nervous Hoya fans after Dante Harris struggled in the season opener against Dartmouth, but he has quickly found his bearings since then, currently averaging 11.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game. His shooting numbers are also on the incline from last year, as he’s shooting 42% from the field and 50% (!) from three. Last year, he shot 35% from the field and 26% from three.
Another thing that Harris has improved on so far is his turnovers. Last year, Harris’ turnover rate was 20%, and through three games this year, it’s a stellar 8.8%. Georgetown needs him to be a steady presence for this young team at the point guard position, and Harris has showed he can be just that in the last two games.
Georgetown’s free throw-shooting has taken a nosedive
One of the strength’s of last year’s Georgetown team was its free throw shooting (who can forget their 23-for-23 performance from the free throw line against Villanova in the BET?) but so far this season, that’s looking to be one of their biggest weaknesses.
The Hoyas are shooting 66.1% from the free throw line as a team to start this season, which is ranked 251st overall in Division 1. Last year, they finished the year ranked 44th in the country in free throw percentage, at 75.3%.
To compound their issues, the top three Georgetown players in free throw attempts per game (Mohammed, Harris, and Jordan Riley) are shooting a combined 56.8% from the charity stripe so far. Riley’s percentage in particular, at 37.5%, is concerning.
What I Think
Georgetown’s centers are going to be carved up defensively against better competition
We saw a preview of this against Siena center Jackson Stormo on Friday night, when Stormo went off for 25 points and 11 rebounds, and that trend is only likely to get worse as Georgetown’s inexperienced trio of centers takes on tougher opponents as they get deeper into the season.
Of the three centers on the roster, Tim Ighoefe is the best defender, and the stats (mostly) back that up, as he has the second lowest defensive rating (87.1) on the team, and has the best Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (13.1) on the team, according to EvanMiya.com. Of course, Ighoefe also can’t stop fouling, which limits his ability to help his team. His fouls per 40 minutes number is currently at 7.8. That’s really bad!
Malcolm Wilson has shown flashes (and the ability to hit one-handed free throws!) but his tall, lithe frame is going to get pushed around by bigger centers, especially once Big East play starts. Same thing goes for Ryan Mutombo, who is perhaps even further away than Wilson is physically, and doesn’t move as well as Wilson does.
There’s no clear answer for the Hoyas at the center position if Ighoefe can’t cut down on the fouling. Right now, it looks like that is going to be a glaring weakness for this team until someone steps up.
Jordan Riley is the team’s best defender
Aminu Mohammed is drawing the assignment of guarding the team’s best player right now, so he deserves a shoutout too and I wouldn’t put up much of a fight if you wanted to say he’s the best defender, but Jordan Riley has stood out to me on the defensive end of the floor, which has allowed his game to flourish in the open court where his skills are best on display right now.
Riley is leading the team in defensive rating (83.7), defensive box plus/minus (2.1), and steal rate (5.3%). As Riley looks to find his footing on offense, he will continue to get minutes in the rotation if he can stand out defensively like he has so far.
Tyler Beard is capable of being a trusted backup point guard
His stats have been un-spectactular, but Beard has played with a good amount of poise to start the season. For a player who only started playing point guard full-time last year during his prep year, Beard has displayed good vision and a capable handle through three games. His modest 15.5% turnover rate is a good starting point for a freshman guard, and should improve as he gets more comfortable playing at the college level.
Beard also isn’t doing too much when he does see playing time. He keeps the ball moving, takes open shots when he gets them, and has played relatively mistake-free so far.
Every Georgetown freshman has displayed defensive potential
Perhaps the most encouraging thing that the vaunted Georgetown freshman class has showed as a collective is its defensive ability.
Mohammed has shown the ability to guard the team’s best player, Riley has played strong defense so far in his role off the bench, Beard has the ability to guard multiple guard positions, and Billingsley is currently 4th on the team in defensive rating. Even Mutombo, while not physically ready to guard bigger centers, has shown encouraging defensive instincts and awareness when he’s been on the floor.
Ideally, this class can help create a stronger defensive identity for Georgetown, something that has been largely missing during Patrick Ewing’s tenure as head coach at Georgetown.
Aminu Mohammed has tunnel vision
It really showed against Siena, but Mohammed, while off to a strong overall start at Georgetown, needs to learn to drive with vision when he attacks the rim. Right now, he is getting into the paint with one goal, which is to score. That’s not going to work all the time against college defenses who can send bigger defenders at him to help. In high school, he could score over the help, but in college, Mohammed is quickly finding out that’s not the case.
The above play inside the tweet is a good example. Mohammed can collapse the defense easily, but now he needs to learn to kick the ball out to open shooters when he is met at the rim by two or three defenders. This part of his game will take time to develop— learning how to make the right read— so patience will be required.
Jordan Riley needs to be reined in on offense
While he’s done well defensively, Riley has been erratic on the other end of the floor. His 5.3 turnovers per 40 minutes leads the team right now, and a usage rate of 21.7% is too high for a player averaging 5.3 points per game and turning the ball over like he is. He brings a lot to the team with his athleticism, especially in transition, but he is still finding his way in the halfcourt offense right now.
What I Don’t Know
Can Tim Ighoefe stop fouling so much?
It’s now Year 3 for Tim Ighoefe. Each year, he has averaged 7+ fouls per 40 minutes; this year, it’s currently at 7.8. Can we really expect him to fix his fouling troubles at this point in his career?
For better or for worse, this team needs Tim Ighoefe. He’s a strong defender when he is able to stay on the court and out of foul trouble, and he is a strong presence on the boards as well. The problem is, he can’t stay on the court long enough right now to really help this team.
Now a junior, the sample size is large enough that it’s not unrealistic to wonder if he will ever cut down on the fouls. If he can’t, the Hoyas will have to rely more on Malcolm Wilson and/or Ryan Mutombo, which is a risky proposition.
How do Kobe Clark and Collin Holloway fit into the equation?
We’re still waiting on sophomore wings Kobe Clark and Collin Holloway to make their season debuts. Holloway, coming off of foot surgery, is closer than Clark, as he’s warmed up in uniform the last two games. Clark is still out with a hamstring injury.
When either returns, Patrick Ewing is going to have some shuffling to do with his lineups, if he wants to fit one or both of them into his rotation. Does he take some minutes away from Kaiden Rice? Or Jalin Billingsley? We’ll see.
Is a player that only shoots threes and can’t defend worth starting?
Before erupting for 23 points on 7-of-10 three-point shooting against Siena, Rice was ice-cold in his first two games, going 3-for-15 from long range. His Siena performance was encouraging, and shows you what kind of a shooter he is, but Rice’s ghastly defensive stats from his time at The Citadel have carried over to Georgetown, and he hasn’t shown the ability to do anything but shoot the three. So, with that in mind, is that kind of a player worth starting every game?
With Jalin Billingsley still looking to find his way a little bit, Ewing doesn’t have many options behind Rice, who has a 86.2% three-point attempt rate so far.
But if Billingsley can settle in eventually, it may make sense to bring Rice’s shooting off the bench later in the season. Rice’s defensive stats at Georgetown have been poor, as he’s second-to-last on the team in defensive rating and defensive box plus/minus among rotation players.
According to EvanMiya.com’s DBPR statistic, a number that measures the defensive value a player brings to his team when he is on the court, Rice is worst on the team by a MILE, at -10.3. The next closest player is Don Carey, at -0.9.
If Rice can keep up the red-hot shooting that he displayed against Siena, then you might be able to survive with what he does on the other end of the floor. But if his shooting is inconsistent, it’s hard to justify starting him if he can only shoot threes and doesn’t provide much of a defensive impact. Here’s hoping he’s found his stroke for good and the hot shooting is here to stay.